Handicapping the Presidential Race
Unless one or both make a bad mistake in the next 6 months, a la Howard Dean, the Democrat candidate is already set. It's Hillary. And the safest bet you can make today is that Hillary will make Obama her Veep. The way such races happen these days, the media annoints their candidate. Even if there's some Democrat out there everybody on that side would adore, they won't ever find out about him. The left media, led by the NY Times, has already chosen Hillary. So Hillary it will be. (Unless she pulls a Howard Dean or somebody exposes her in a major scandal)
The Republican candidate is much harder to predict. Giuliani is the front-runner, but the Republican base feels ambivalent about him. Republicans like him because he's tough on terror and shows strong leadership qualities. But they are decidedly uncomfortable with his liberal social positions. He might be able to pull stronger support from the Republican base for the general election if he chooses a strong conservative for his Veep.
Most Republicans are sitting back and watching without getting behind a specific candidate at this point. Lots of folks like Duncan Hunter, for example, but hesitate to line up behind him unless he starts polling in the top tier. And everybody else is just waiting for Fred to jump into the race. If Fred takes his strong, no-nonsense conservative message on the road and doesn't make a big mistake, he's the one guy that has a chance to energize the Republican base.
Conventional wisdom now says it's a foregone conclusion. The Democrat candidate will win easily. Be careful about conventional wisdom, because it comes from the same media that has already anointed Hillary. Their message to Republicans is, Give up guys, Hillary's already won.
Maybe. But I think there are some things brewing that could change that in the next year. Success in Iraq being the number one - reports are increasingly positive that Bush's hated "Surge" may be working. Democrats have been desparately trying to short-circuit the whole thing, because actual success in Iraq will sink them.
If Iraq turns around, there are two other things I think could almost guarantee a win for the Republican candidate. Number one is if Republicans take the lead in finishing the fence and beefing up border security, cracking down on visa overstays, then widely publicizing the success. Number two is the introduction of a smart energy plan with a media blitz that shames the blue dog Dems into signing onto a plan that promises increased exploration, increased refining capacity, and overall energy initiatives that will bring the costs down while protecting the environment.
Number one is very achievable, but the leadership seems too dumb to carry it through. Number two is nearly impossible, but if a strong leader emerges to champion the case, it could have an outside chance.
Current prediction: Clinton/Obama vs. Giuliani/Thompson
The Republican candidate is much harder to predict. Giuliani is the front-runner, but the Republican base feels ambivalent about him. Republicans like him because he's tough on terror and shows strong leadership qualities. But they are decidedly uncomfortable with his liberal social positions. He might be able to pull stronger support from the Republican base for the general election if he chooses a strong conservative for his Veep.
Most Republicans are sitting back and watching without getting behind a specific candidate at this point. Lots of folks like Duncan Hunter, for example, but hesitate to line up behind him unless he starts polling in the top tier. And everybody else is just waiting for Fred to jump into the race. If Fred takes his strong, no-nonsense conservative message on the road and doesn't make a big mistake, he's the one guy that has a chance to energize the Republican base.
Conventional wisdom now says it's a foregone conclusion. The Democrat candidate will win easily. Be careful about conventional wisdom, because it comes from the same media that has already anointed Hillary. Their message to Republicans is, Give up guys, Hillary's already won.
Maybe. But I think there are some things brewing that could change that in the next year. Success in Iraq being the number one - reports are increasingly positive that Bush's hated "Surge" may be working. Democrats have been desparately trying to short-circuit the whole thing, because actual success in Iraq will sink them.
If Iraq turns around, there are two other things I think could almost guarantee a win for the Republican candidate. Number one is if Republicans take the lead in finishing the fence and beefing up border security, cracking down on visa overstays, then widely publicizing the success. Number two is the introduction of a smart energy plan with a media blitz that shames the blue dog Dems into signing onto a plan that promises increased exploration, increased refining capacity, and overall energy initiatives that will bring the costs down while protecting the environment.
Number one is very achievable, but the leadership seems too dumb to carry it through. Number two is nearly impossible, but if a strong leader emerges to champion the case, it could have an outside chance.
Current prediction: Clinton/Obama vs. Giuliani/Thompson
posted by Dan S. at 5:14 AM
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